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Polymarket

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Polymarket

Introduction

Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market platform that allows users to bet on the outcomes of real-world events by trading shares tied to those outcomes[1]. Launched in 2020 and built on the Polygon (Ethereum) network, Polymarket uses the USDC stablecoin for all wagers, enabling global participation in markets ranging from politics and economics to crypto, weather, and pop culture events[2][3]. The platform’s core purpose is to harness the “wisdom of the crowd” – aggregating information and sentiment from traders to produce odds that serve as predictive indicators. Polymarket positions itself at the intersection of decentralized finance and forecasting, offering a non-custodial, transparent marketplace for information trading while delivering a web interface familiar to traditional bettors. By the mid-2020s, Polymarket emerged as one of the world’s largest prediction markets by trading volume[4][5], frequently cited by media and analysts as a barometer of public expectations on controversial or uncertain topics. Its rise is often credited to its user-friendly design, deep liquidity, and the ability to list timely markets that sometimes outpace traditional polls and expert forecasts in accuracy[6][7].

History & Founding

Polymarket was founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, an American entrepreneur who had been inspired by economist Friedrich Hayek’s ideas on price signals and by professor Robin Hanson’s work on futarchy (i.e. prediction markets for governance)[8]. Coplan, who left New York University to pursue cryptocurrency ventures, launched Polymarket (under the corporate entity Blockratize, Inc.) as a decentralized alternative to traditional betting markets[9][10]. The platform’s inception coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic and a surge of misinformation online – a climate in which Coplan argued that open markets on factual questions could “unveil the truth” by incentivizing people to bet on what they believed would happen[11]. In its first year, Polymarket attracted early adopters from the crypto community with markets on topics like cryptocurrency prices (“Will BTC break \$20k before 2021?”) and public health (“Will U.S. COVID-19 cases fall below a given threshold by date X?”), as well as the 2020 U.S. presidential election[12][13].

From the outset, the project drew venture funding. An initial seed round in late 2020 raised around \$4 million from investors in the blockchain sector. Over the next few years, Polymarket’s backers grew to include prominent figures such as Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and Founders Fund (Peter Thiel’s venture firm). In May 2024, the company announced it had raised a total of \$70 million across two funding rounds[14], underscoring investor confidence in prediction markets. This fundraising valued Polymarket as a leading platform in its category and provided capital for expansion during the 2024 election cycle. Notably, J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former Chairman of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), joined Polymarket as chairman of its advisory board in 2022[15] – a move seen as strengthening its regulatory guidance after early legal troubles (described below).

Polymarket’s user base and market offerings have evolved significantly since launch. Early markets in 2020–21 tended to focus on crypto events and pandemic-related questions, but by 2022 the platform was hosting hundreds of markets across diverse domains. According to the CFTC, Polymarket offered over 900 event markets during its first 18 months of operation[16]. The platform’s profile grew with high-interest events: for example, markets on U.S. elections, major court rulings, and tech industry news began drawing mainstream attention. In June 2023, a Polymarket on the fate of the missing Titan submersible (framed as “Will the sub be found by a certain date?”) went viral on social media[17], bringing a wave of new visitors. By mid-2024, Polymarket was seeing exponential growth in activity, coinciding with the U.S. presidential race. Website traffic jumped from about 1.4 million visits in June 2024 to 13.8 million in August 2024[18][19], and trading volumes surged (see Notable Events). This rapid rise – making Polymarket one of the first prediction markets in the blockchain era to achieve significant public adoption – also brought increased media coverage and scrutiny from regulators.

Market Structure & Operations

Platform and Technology

Polymarket is built as a decentralized application on the Polygon blockchain (a Layer-2 network for Ethereum)[20]. It leverages the Gnosis Conditional Tokens framework (ERC-1155) to represent shares of binary outcomes as on-chain tokens[21]. Every market consists of tokenized outcomes (e.g. one token for “Yes” and another for “No” in a binary question), which users trade using USDC as collateral. All trades and outcomes are ultimately settled on-chain via smart contracts on Polygon, providing transparency and self-custody of funds[22]. Polymarket’s design prioritizes speed and low transaction costs: by using Polygon, it avoids the high gas fees of Ethereum’s mainnet, allowing even small bets to be placed efficiently. Users interact through a web interface that abstracts the blockchain complexity – for instance, Polymarket auto-creates a wallet for new users (who can also connect external wallets like MetaMask) and supports easy USDC on-ramp via debit cards or Coinbase integration[23][24].

Trading Mechanism

Trading on Polymarket combines aspects of centralized exchanges with decentralized finance. The platform employs a “hybrid” central limit order book (CLOB) model, wherein an off-chain matching engine operated by Polymarket organizes buy and sell orders, but actual trade settlement (transfer of outcome tokens and funds) occurs on-chain[25]. This means users can place limit orders (specifying a price to buy or sell shares) which are matched against others through the order book, or execute market orders that trade immediately at the best available price[26][27]. The order book for each market is visible on the site, showing the current bids and asks for outcome shares. Polymarket’s hybrid approach provides a user experience similar to a traditional exchange (fast matching, with a visible order depth) while preserving non-custodial settlement (trades finalize via smart contract).

In addition to the order book, Polymarket supports automated market maker (AMM) liquidity in each market. Under the hood, each market has a liquidity pool that ensures continuous prices – even if the order book has gaps, users can always buy or sell outcome tokens directly against the pool (much like trading against Uniswap’s constant-product AMM)[28]. Early versions of Polymarket relied heavily on an AMM model, whereas newer iterations introduced the order-book layer; today the two coexist, with the AMM providing baseline liquidity and the order book enabling more precise trades. This hybrid CLOB+AMM structure is relatively novel in prediction markets and is facilitated by Polymarket’s custom smart contracts for binary options trading[29].

Liquidity Provision

The platform encourages users to become liquidity providers (LPs) by depositing funds into a market’s liquidity pool. When a user provides liquidity, the smart contract mints a set of outcome tokens in proportion (for a binary market, 1 of each outcome per share of liquidity)[30]. Liquidity providers earn a portion of trading fees from that market – Polymarket charges a small fee on each trade (often around 2%), which is allocated to LPs as an incentive[31][32]. In practice, each trade’s fee is split among LPs proportional to their share of the pool, providing passive income for LPs in exchange for them taking on the risk of holding both outcomes. Higher liquidity leads to tighter spreads and less price slippage, improving the market for all participants[33]. Polymarket has actively bootstrapped liquidity by subsidizing LPs with rewards – by 2024 the platform had paid out over \$3 million in USDC as liquidity mining incentives to deepen its markets[34]. Users can add or remove liquidity at any time, though they face the usual AMM risk of impermanent loss if odds move significantly. Because each LP share is composed of both outcomes, an LP essentially takes a neutral position (holding all possible results); as traders buy one side or the other, the pool’s balances shift and prices adjust according to a predefined formula (Polymarket has even researched custom AMM curves optimized for prediction markets[35][36]). By combining crowdsourced liquidity with an order book interface, Polymarket aims to ensure markets are liquid and orderly, even during volatility spikes.

Market Creation and Rules

Unlike fully open protocols, Polymarket’s markets are curated by the platform’s team. New markets are created by Polymarket’s internal markets team, with input from user suggestions[37]. Users cannot permissionlessly launch their own markets on the live platform; instead, the community is invited to propose ideas (via Polymarket’s Discord or Twitter) for events they’d like to see, and the team selects and formulates markets based on demand and clarity[38][39]. In deciding which markets to list, Polymarket considers factors such as expected trading interest (they target a minimum volume threshold), the social or news value of the question, and the clarity of resolution criteria[40]. Each market comes with a detailed description and resolution source – an official source or event that will determine the outcome. For example, an election market will cite a country’s election commission results as the source of truth[41]. Markets also have explicit end dates and resolution timelines to avoid ambiguity. By centrally vetting question wording and resolution conditions, Polymarket aims to prevent the pitfalls seen in earlier prediction platforms (such as vague or unverifiable outcomes). This does trade off some decentralization, but it reduces instances of malformed or unethical markets. Users have occasionally pushed for the ability to create their own markets; while this isn’t directly available on the main platform as of 2025, Polymarket’s team has hinted at longer-term plans to decentralize listing through community governance (potentially in conjunction with a future platform token). For now, market proposals are effectively crowd-sourced but market listings are moderated, which has helped Polymarket avoid the extremist or assassination markets that plagued some predecessors.

Resolution and Oracles

Polymarket uses a decentralized oracle mechanism to resolve markets, ensuring outcomes are determined fairly and transparently once real-world events conclude. In 2021, Polymarket integrated the UMA Protocol’s Optimistic Oracle as its primary resolution system[42][43]. Under this model, when a market’s outcome is known (e.g. after Election Day or after an event’s deadline), anyone can propose a result on-chain via UMA. The proposer must post a bond (e.g. \$750 in USDC)[44] and specify the outcome according to the market’s rules. The proposal enters a challenge period (currently 2 hours) during which others can review it[45]. If no one disputes the proposal, the Optimistic Oracle finalizes that outcome as correct; the market’s smart contract then resolves, allowing winning outcome tokens to be redeemed for \$1 each while losing tokens become worthless[46]. The proposer gets their bond back plus a small reward[47]. If someone disputes a proposed resolution (believing it to be wrong), the case escalates to UMA’s dispute resolution process – essentially a vote among UMA token holders to determine the true outcome[48]. This community validation adds a backstop against incorrect or malicious resolutions.

In practice, disputes are rare if market rules are well-defined, but the oracle framework gives all stakeholders confidence that outcomes aren’t unilaterally decided by Polymarket staff. (Polymarket has described itself as “oracle-agnostic,” indicating that it could switch or integrate other oracles if needed[49][50].) Indeed, for certain numeric price markets – e.g. a market on the price of Bitcoin reaching X – Polymarket can use data feeds like Pyth network or Chainlink as the price oracle[51]. Once resolved, markets enter a claim period where traders can withdraw their winnings. Polymarket’s use of UMA’s oracle – a well-tested DeFi component – was partly in response to regulatory pressure to decentralize operations. It means Polymarket itself does not directly declare winners; instead, outcome resolution is trust-minimized and verifiable on-chain[52][53].

Fees and Incentives

Polymarket’s fee structure is relatively minimal and designed to sustain the markets rather than extract profit (at least in its growth phase). The standard fee on trades is about 2% on the winning side payouts – effectively, if you win a bet, you receive \$0.98 per share instead of \$1 (the difference accumulates to the fee pool)[54]. Importantly, Polymarket does not keep this fee as revenue; instead, the collected fees are distributed to liquidity providers as rewards for facilitating trades[55]. In addition, a fraction may be used to cover operational costs like blockchain transaction fees. Because trades occur on Polygon, users pay only tiny gas fees, but depositing or withdrawing USDC from Polygon entails bridging which can have network fees; Polymarket subsidized many of these costs for users early on[56]. As a result, trading on Polymarket has been essentially fee-less for takers (no platform fee beyond the implicit 2% win fee) and even makers earn via incentives – a model aimed at attracting volume.

The platform currently has no native token required for use (unlike Augur’s REP token, for example). However, Polymarket is reportedly considering launching its own token in the future[57][58]. Such a token could be used to further incentivize participation (e.g. rewarding traders or market creators) and potentially for governance or oracle voting in a more decentralized Polymarket 2.0[59]. As of 2025, Polymarket’s revenue model remains modest; the focus has been on growth and liquidity rather than immediate profitability. The company has hinted that down the road it may introduce additional fees or monetization (the founder has suggested small platform fees could be added later)[60], especially once a token or more decentralized framework is in place. In summary, Polymarket’s operations are structured to prioritize liquidity, accuracy, and user growth – the platform absorbs many costs and delegates key processes to smart contracts, aligning with its ethos of an open market for information.

Notable Events & Market Outcomes

Since its launch, Polymarket has hosted a number of high-profile prediction markets that garnered significant attention and, in some cases, demonstrated the platform’s forecasting prowess relative to traditional indicators. Below are some of the most notable events and outcomes on Polymarket:

2020 U.S. Election

One of Polymarket’s earliest major tests was the 2020 United States presidential election. The platform ran markets on whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden would win the presidency, attracting crypto-savvy bettors at a time when mainstream prediction markets (like PredictIt and Betfair) were also active. While volumes then were modest compared to later years, Polymarket’s markets closely tracked election-night developments. (The CFTC later cited the Trump vs. Biden market as an example of Polymarket’s offerings during 2020[61].) The election outcome (Biden’s victory) was correctly reflected by Polymarket’s final odds, and the event helped validate the concept for new users. It also exposed many to how quickly crypto-based markets could settle – Polymarket was able to resolve the election market via its contracts soon after official results, with winners paid in USDC without intermediary delays.

COVID-19 and Other Early Markets

During 2020–21, Polymarket ran a series of notable markets on the COVID pandemic’s trajectory and other current events. For example, traders bet on whether the U.S. 7-day average COVID case count would fall below a certain threshold by a given date[62], and on whether vaccines would receive approval by year-end. These markets often showcased the platform’s ability to synthesize information: e.g. traders collectively correctly anticipated the timeline of vaccine approvals in some cases, and in others they reacted in real-time to news about new variants or policy changes. Polymarket also listed unusual markets such as finance and crypto milestones (“Will Ethereum’s price exceed \$2,500 by July 22, 2021?” – it did not by that date[63]) and pop culture events (like award show outcomes), which sometimes outperformed public polls. While not all early markets were accurate, a few notably beat expert opinion – for instance, Polymarket traders predicted with high confidence that inflation in Q1 2021 would be above the Fed’s target when many economists were uncertain, an outcome that proved correct (as referenced by a market on US GDP or CPI)[64]. These successes built credibility for the platform.

2024 U.S. Presidential Election – Record Volume

The 2024 U.S. election cycle marked Polymarket’s breakout into the mainstream. The platform’s market on the 2024 Presidential Election Winner became its largest-ever, both in terms of volume traded and money at stake. By early November 2024 (just before Election Day), over \$3.3 billion had been wagered on the presidential race outcome on Polymarket[65] – an unprecedented figure that dwarfed the volumes on competing prediction exchanges. This single market absorbed enormous liquidity and saw wild swings in odds as real-world events unfolded. For context, Polymarket’s presidential market volume climbed from \$73 million total in 2023 to \$1.37 billion in 2024 year-to-date by September[66], and then surged further to over \$3B by November as traders positioned on the contest between the Republican candidate (Donald Trump) and the Democratic candidate (initially Joe Biden, later Kamala Harris)[67]. The high volume was fueled by several shocks and twists in the race: for example, an assassination attempt on Trump in June 2024 and rumors of President Biden withdrawing from the race both dramatically shifted trading sentiment[68]. Polymarket’s odds updated in real time with each development, often mirroring the volatility of news cycles. The platform became a reference point for election watchers – at times cited alongside traditional polls. By Election Day, the Polymarket odds had correctly called momentum toward Trump; indeed the Republican candidate ultimately won, and one prolific Polymarket trader famously netted an \$85 million profit from Trump-wins shares (see Controversies for details)[69]. The 2024 election solidified Polymarket’s reputation, with mainstream outlets like The Wall Street Journal and CNN reporting on its market prices as a gauge of the race[70][71]. It also highlighted both the potential and challenges of decentralized prediction markets in major political events.

Anticipating Biden’s Withdrawal (2024)

One of Polymarket’s most talked-about forecasting “wins” was its traders’ early call on President Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the 2024 race. After a presidential primary debate on June 27, 2024, Polymarket’s market on “Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee?” spiked dramatically – within days, the implied probability of Biden not running (i.e. withdrawing) jumped from around 20% to 70%[72]. This shift came well before any official statement or consensus in the media that Biden might drop out. For weeks, pundits and polls still assumed the incumbent would run, but Polymarket traders, reacting to subtle cues (poor debate performance, campaign gaffes, insider rumors), heavily bet on a withdrawal. Indeed in early August 2024, Joe Biden officially announced he would not seek re-election. Observers noted that internet prediction markets anticipated Biden’s withdrawal weeks ahead of time[73][74], an outcome that conventional forecasters had largely missed. This was hailed as a proof of concept that a well-informed crowd, putting money on the line, can sometimes out-predict experts[75]. The event was covered by Axios and Fortune as a milestone for prediction markets’ credibility[76]. It’s worth noting that while traders correctly foresaw Biden’s exit, they did not perfectly predict all subsequent twists – for instance, Polymarket bettors initially favored Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as Kamala Harris’s running mate at 68% odds, whereas Harris ultimately selected Minnesota’s Tim Walz (who Polymarket had at 23%)[77][78]. This underscored that while the crowd can be prescient, it is not infallible; markets reflect probabilities, not certainties.

Market Divergence and Insider Signals (October 2024)

In October 2024, Polymarket became the subject of controversy when its odds diverged sharply from other forecasters in the presidential race. On October 7, Polymarket’s market showed Donald Trump with a 53% chance to win vs. 46% for Harris[79], essentially indicating Trump as the favorite – even though other platforms like PredictIt and election models (FiveThirtyEight, etc.) still gave Harris ~54–55% chance at that time[80]. This divergence persisted into mid-October, with Polymarket at one point showing Trump ~60% likely while most polls and models favored Harris[81]. The striking split led to widespread discussion about what Polymarket traders “knew” that others didn’t. Some speculated it was insider information or an influence campaign (since Polymarket has no cap on bet size, a wealthy insider with private knowledge could swing the odds)[82]. Others pointed to a sentiment wave: Elon Musk had spoken at a Trump rally and promoted Polymarket on social media around that time, possibly inspiring a surge of pro-Trump bets[83]. It turned out the divergence was largely caused by a few large wagers rather than broad consensus – essentially, one or a few whale traders had bet tens of millions on Trump (later revealed to be a single French trader using multiple accounts)[84][85]. Nonetheless, Polymarket’s market sent a signal that caught the attention of journalists and even campaigns. In the end, that signal proved accurate (Trump did win), but at the time it raised questions: Was Polymarket detecting genuine information or simply reflecting the biases of big bettors? This episode, while controversial, demonstrated the power of a prediction market to sometimes tell a “different story from the polls,” as noted by the New York Times[86]. It also highlighted the need to interpret market odds cautiously, especially if volume is concentrated.

Other High-Profile Markets

Outside of U.S. politics, Polymarket has seen notable markets in domains like finance, crypto, and global events. For example, in 2021–22 it ran a series of markets on whether the U.S. Congress would pass certain bills or regulations by deadlines, providing real-time odds on legislative outcomes. Some of these markets proved prescient – traders accurately gauged the low probability of sweeping crypto legislation passing in 2022, even as some lobbyists were optimistic. Polymarket also outperformed some mainstream forecasts on economic indicators: a well-traded market on whether the Federal Reserve would hike interest rates in a particular meeting correctly anticipated moves that many analysts doubted. In the crypto realm, Polymarket has listed markets on milestone events like Ethereum’s “Merge” (transition to proof-of-stake). Traders pegged the probability of the Merge occurring by a target date with notable accuracy, adjusting odds immediately with each developer update. Another much-followed market was “Will a Bitcoin ETF be approved by end of 2021?” – Polymarket odds remained low throughout the year, correctly reflecting the eventual outcome (no approval). On the flip side, some Polymarket markets have been voided if conditions change – e.g., a major sports event canceled due to COVID. Generally, Polymarket avoids sports betting markets but has occasionally dabbled in niche sports or esports. Overall, Polymarket’s track record shows mixed but often impressive results. Its traders have correctly anticipated several significant events ahead of experts, and the sheer liquidity in certain markets like the 2024 election has made Polymarket’s odds newsworthy in their own right. At the same time, outliers underscore that these are probabilistic markets subject to human whims and information gaps.

Regulatory & Legal Challenges

From its inception, Polymarket has operated in a legally gray zone, navigating financial regulations that were not designed with decentralized prediction markets in mind. The platform’s core activity – offering binary options on event outcomes – falls under the purview of gambling and commodities laws in many jurisdictions, which has led to regulatory scrutiny and enforcement actions.

CFTC Investigation and Fine (2021–22)

In late 2021, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) began investigating Polymarket for operating unregistered event-based binary options markets. Under U.S. law, these contracts are considered swaps or commodity options, which generally must be traded on a designated contract market or swap execution facility (SEF) if offered to U.S. persons[87][88]. Polymarket had never registered with the CFTC and was essentially allowing retail users to bet on outcomes outside of regulated exchanges. On January 3, 2022, the CFTC announced a settlement with Polymarket’s operator (Blockratize, Inc.): Polymarket agreed to pay a \$1.4 million civil monetary penalty and to cease offering markets that did not comply with the Commodity Exchange Act[89][90]. The order specifically required Polymarket to wind down all its existing markets that were illegal[91]. The CFTC found that Polymarket had offered more than 900 such contracts since launch without approval[92]. However, the Commission did note Polymarket’s “substantial cooperation” with the investigation, which resulted in a reduced fine[93].

This enforcement action made clear that, in the CFTC’s view, Polymarket’s activities constituted unregistered derivatives trading, regardless of the blockchain tech involved: “All derivatives markets must operate within the bounds of the law regardless of the technology used,” emphasized the CFTC’s Acting Enforcement Director[94]. In response, Polymarket immediately geofenced U.S. users – as of January 2022, the platform began blocking U.S. IP addresses and officially stated that Americans could no longer use its site[95]. The platform also complied with the cease-and-desist by closing a number of markets; after a brief pause, Polymarket continued operations focusing on non-U.S. users. The 2022 CFTC action was a pivotal moment, underscoring the legal challenges of running a prediction market in the U.S., and it hinted at potential paths forward (either pursuing registration like the regulated exchange Kalshi, or staying offshore).

Operating Offshore and Advisory Board Changes

After the CFTC settlement, Polymarket took steps to bolster its regulatory strategy. In May 2022, the company appointed former CFTC Chairman J. Christopher Giancarlo as the head of its advisory board[96]. Giancarlo brought deep expertise in derivatives regulation. His role was likely to guide Polymarket on how to eventually structure a compliant product or to advocate for clearer rules for event markets. Simultaneously, Polymarket’s operations began shifting outside U.S. jurisdiction. By 2024, the company had set up entities and servers offshore (reports suggested its election markets were run through offshore affiliates)[97]. Polymarket’s website would show a warning and block attempts to access from the U.S., and the terms of service excluded U.S. residents. Despite these measures, American users could still theoretically access Polymarket using VPNs or other workarounds. Polymarket maintained that it was not serving U.S. customers, but in practice a portion of its user base likely remained U.S.-based clandestinely. The regulatory arbitrage of being a New York-founded company running a betting site “offshore” set the stage for later conflicts with authorities.

2024 U.S. Election Scrutiny – DOJ and FBI Probe

Polymarket’s explosive growth during the 2024 election cycle drew intense regulator attention once again. On November 13, 2024 – just after the election – the FBI raided the Manhattan home of Polymarket’s founder, Shayne Coplan[98][99]. Agents seized Coplan’s electronic devices as part of a joint investigation by the Department of Justice (DOJ). According to Bloomberg and Reuters, U.S. authorities were probing whether Polymarket unlawfully allowed U.S. bettors to use the platform despite the 2022 order[100][101]. The investigation spans both criminal and civil angles, suggesting that the DOJ (possibly with the CFTC or state gambling authorities) is examining potential violations of gambling laws and the prior cease-and-desist. It’s alleged that significant betting on Polymarket in 2024 originated from U.S. individuals, which, if true, could constitute a breach of the Commodity Exchange Act or federal anti-gambling statutes. As of early 2025, this investigation is ongoing – no charges have been publicly filed yet, but the raid indicates serious intent.

International Regulatory Actions

Outside the United States, Polymarket has also encountered legal barriers. In Europe and Asia, many countries classify unlicensed prediction markets as gambling. In December 2024, France’s National Gaming Authority (ANJ) ordered ISPs to block access to Polymarket.com, deeming the site to be offering illegal gambling products[102]. Similarly, in late 2024 Singapore’s Gambling Regulatory Authority blocked Polymarket, citing unlawful remote gambling offerings[103]. Thailand was also reported to be moving to block the site in January 2025[104]. These actions mean that Polymarket has been blacklisted by some national firewalls. Polymarket generally has not mounted legal challenges, lacking local licenses in those countries. The patchwork of regulations makes operating a global prediction market complex. As of 2025, large markets like the EU, UK, Canada, and most of Asia remain accessible in practice, but any country could impose restrictions.

Compliance Measures

To mitigate legal risks, Polymarket implemented various compliance measures. The most significant was the geoblocking of U.S. users starting in 2022[105]. The platform’s interface also began showing more prominent disclaimers about eligibility. Polymarket’s Terms of Service explicitly prohibit users from banned regions and also ban market manipulation[106]. However, Polymarket has not implemented full KYC identity checks for most users, unlike regulated exchanges. Traders can still use the platform with only an email and a crypto wallet, preserving user privacy[107]. This absence of KYC is part of its appeal but remains a sticking point for regulators. A question hangs over whether Polymarket will eventually be compelled to introduce KYC – as of early 2025 it has not, relying on IP blocks instead[108].

Regulatory Environment

Polymarket’s challenges are taking place amid broader moves on prediction markets. In 2023, the CFTC proposed a rule to ban betting on U.S. elections on the grounds that it may be contrary to the public interest[109]. If such a rule is finalized, it would definitively bar any U.S.-based exchange from offering election markets. The CFTC has allowed certain other event contracts (like those on Kalshi for economic indicators). This uneven regulatory landscape means Polymarket must carefully choose which markets to offer and where. In essence, Polymarket remains an unlicensed betting platform in the eyes of many governments. Future enforcement may tighten or, conversely, there may be legal reforms that legitimize event markets. For now, Polymarket is effectively banned for U.S. users and under scrutiny elsewhere.

User Base & Behavioral Insights

Polymarket’s user base is a mix of retail crypto enthusiasts, speculators, and informed bettors. Because of its open-access nature (minimal KYC, a crypto wallet needed), Polymarket has attracted tens of thousands of users globally. By one analysis in 2024, over 171,000 unique crypto wallets had interacted with Polymarket, though a relatively small subset were consistently profitable[110].

Retail Traders and Crypto Community

Most Polymarket traders appear to be retail individuals, often overlapping with the crypto trading community. The platform’s growth during the 2024 election saw a broader influx, including political gamblers and finance hobbyists. Still, the typical user is tech-savvy. While Polymarket officially blocks U.S. IPs, some American users reportedly circumvent these blocks. Outside the U.S., Polymarket is popular in Europe, Latin America, and parts of Asia. An active community on social media (Twitter/X, Discord) discusses market sentiment and research, creating a “hive mind” culture around certain questions.

Institutional and Professional Presence

Though Polymarket isn’t openly institutional (due to legal issues), whale traders and crypto funds do participate. Some have placed extremely large bets, such as the French “Trump whale” who reportedly bet \$28 million on Trump winning in 2024[111][112]. Such bets can sway odds short-term but also invite arbitrage if the odds diverge too far from others’ expectations. Some crypto quant firms also operate on Polymarket, profiting from spread differences and providing liquidity. Nate Silver (FiveThirtyEight founder) joined Polymarket as an advisor in 2024[113], signaling interest in bridging data-driven forecasting with crypto markets.

Behavioral Patterns – Wisdom and Bias

Polymarket exemplifies the “wisdom of the crowd” while also showcasing crowd bias. Traders collectively incorporate new information rapidly, making Polymarket odds a leading indicator on some events. However, large holders can cause herding or short-term mispricings, such as the pro-Trump wave in October 2024 fueled by a single whale. Over time, arbitrage often corrects prices. Some analysts have noted that insider trading is not prohibited – if someone has non-public information, they can bet on Polymarket, potentially improving market accuracy. Critics say this can be unfair to ordinary traders, but advocates argue it makes markets more predictive.

Profitability and Outcomes

While Polymarket’s overall forecasts can be accurate, most individual users do not profit. One study found only about 12.7% of addresses were net profitable[114]. A small fraction of skilled or well-capitalized traders take the largest gains. Polymarket has tried to promote informational or hedging utility, but in practice most use it for speculation.

User Behavior and Community

The Polymarket community is active in analysis and debate, sharing data and commenting on potential misresolutions or tricky event wording. The platform once allowed open commenting but later restricted it to holders to reduce spam. Some community members have expressed concern about whales or manipulative bets, but others view that risk as inherent to open markets. Mainstream journalists and researchers track Polymarket’s odds to glean real-time sentiment, leading to further integration in media coverage.

Competitor Comparison

Polymarket operates in a space that includes both traditional prediction markets and other blockchain-based platforms. Key competitors or comparables include PredictIt, Kalshi, and Augur, among others.

PredictIt

PredictIt launched in 2014 under a U.S. academic exemption for real-money political betting but with strict limits (e.g., \$850 per user per market). It is centralized, regulated, and open to U.S. users, whereas Polymarket is decentralized, has no investment caps, and blocks U.S. IPs. PredictIt charges higher fees and has fewer market categories. By 2022–23, Polymarket’s volume on major events began to exceed PredictIt’s, especially since PredictIt faced a shutdown order from the CFTC. Polymarket draws crypto users globally but is officially off-limits to Americans.

Kalshi

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated U.S. exchange offering event contracts on topics like inflation or weather, operating as a Designated Contract Market. By contrast, Polymarket remains unregulated and offshore, allowing a wider range of questions (including elections). Kalshi uses USD and requires full KYC, which appeals to risk-averse traders, while Polymarket relies on USDC and minimal KYC. Because Kalshi cannot (so far) offer political markets, Polymarket dominates election-based volume. Kalshi’s regulatory compliance may pave the way for mainstream acceptance but constrains its listing flexibility.

Augur

Augur pioneered decentralized prediction markets on Ethereum with a fully permissionless approach governed by its REP token. However, Augur struggled with high gas fees (on Ethereum L1) and user experience. Polymarket built on Polygon from the start, offered curated markets with user-friendly design, and achieved significantly higher liquidity. Augur’s open market creation led to controversial listings (like assassination markets) and diluted volume. In contrast, Polymarket’s curated approach avoided these pitfalls and scaled quickly, though it is more centralized in market selection.

Other Competitors

Platforms like Omen (by Gnosis), Manifold Markets (play-money + optional real money), and various smaller crypto prediction protocols (Zeitgeist on Polkadot, Thales on Optimism, etc.) exist but generally do not match Polymarket’s liquidity and visibility. Traditional betting exchanges like Betfair also compete for event wagering but are centralized and unavailable in many regions, whereas Polymarket’s global crypto model suits users who prefer decentralized finance.

Controversies & Criticism

Polymarket’s growth and model have attracted controversies ranging from ethical debates over market topics to allegations of manipulation or inflated volume.

Wash Trading and Volume Inflation

In late 2024, investigations by blockchain analytics firms suggested a substantial portion of trading activity on Polymarket might be artificial wash trading[115][116]. Chaos Labs and Inca Digital estimated that up to one-third of Polymarket’s 2024 U.S. election trading volume might be traders buying and selling to themselves, potentially trying to “farm” a rumored future token airdrop. Zero or minimal fees on trades facilitated this. Polymarket stated that same-user trades “are not in and of themselves problematic,” though it prohibits manipulation in its terms of service[117]. Critics argued these practices inflate reported volume and mislead observers about genuine liquidity.

Whale Influence and Market Manipulation Fears

Uncapped bets on Polymarket mean wealthy individuals can sway odds. The October 2024 “Trump whale,” who bet tens of millions on Trump, caused odds to diverge from other platforms, prompting speculation about propaganda efforts[118]. Polymarket investigated and found a single French trader was behind the trades, not a concerted campaign[119]. The trader ultimately earned \$85 million after Trump’s victory. While this validated the position, critics say such outsized bets can distort prices and undermine the “wisdom of crowds.” Supporters counter that open markets naturally allow large participants, and mispricings are corrected by opposing traders.

Ethical and Content Controversies

Listing markets on potentially tragic events has sparked debate, such as the 2023 “Titan submarine” question (whether a missing submersible would be found by a deadline)[120]. Critics found it ghoulish to bet on an unfolding rescue mission. Polymarket responded that the market was on whether the sub would be found, not on passengers’ survival. More broadly, Polymarket’s willingness to host politically sensitive or crisis-related events draws both fascination (for real-time forecasting) and criticism (for profiting off suffering). The platform’s curation policy aims to avoid extreme or violent markets, though some borderline cases spark backlash.

Market Resolution Disputes

While Polymarket relies on UMA’s optimistic oracle, resolution disputes have occasionally arisen over ambiguous market wording. Most disputes are resolved quickly if the official outcome source is clear. However, critics warn that if the oracle system fails or is manipulated, confidence in the platform could be severely damaged. So far, major incorrect resolutions have been avoided.

Security and Forced Closures

Polymarket’s smart contracts have not been hacked, but the forced closure of markets under CFTC directives in 2022 disrupted user expectations. Some called it a “rug pull,” though Polymarket did refund or settle markets fairly. The incident revealed how external regulatory action can abruptly override typical market timelines. Non-custodial design means user funds remain in their control, but functionality still depends on Polymarket’s front end and oracles.

Community and Transparency Critiques

Some users have criticized Polymarket’s centralized decision-making and limited transparency around which markets are approved or delisted. Disclosures about wash trading or staff investigations tend to emerge after third-party reporting. While Polymarket publishes on-chain data, it does not compile or release advanced metrics on user profitability or volume decomposition. As the platform grows, observers expect more public accountability.

Future Outlook

Polymarket’s future is marked by both promise and uncertainty:

  • Potential Token Launch and Decentralization: Polymarket may introduce a native token for governance, oracle staking, or user incentives[121]. A token would further decentralize the platform and may reward early users. However, designing it to avoid U.S. securities scrutiny is a challenge.
  • Product Expansion: New market categories (such as esports or multi-outcome questions) could broaden Polymarket’s reach. Enhancements like mobile apps or deeper DeFi integrations are possible. Polymarket may also improve user experience with advanced analytics and new liquidity mechanisms.
  • Monetization: So far, Polymarket’s revenue model is minimal, with fees going to liquidity providers. The platform may eventually introduce platform fees or a subscription model for data feeds. Venture investors may push for monetization if the user base grows large enough.
  • Regulatory Evolution: Polymarket’s fate depends heavily on changing regulations. It may remain offshore while geoblocking users from hostile jurisdictions. Alternatively, if U.S. law softens, Polymarket could seek licensing and become a legitimate domestic player. A severe crackdown, however, might force the platform into deeper decentralization or lead to founder relocations.
  • Competition and Mainstream Adoption: Polymarket’s success has made it a reference for real-time event forecasting. If it continues to offer high liquidity and accurate odds, it could become a standard data source for journalists and analysts. Large competitors (e.g. major crypto exchanges) might challenge Polymarket’s dominance by launching rival products, or Polymarket might partner with traditional finance. Its position as the premier decentralized prediction market could solidify if it navigates regulatory and technical hurdles successfully.

Overall, Polymarket occupies a unique niche as a user-friendly, decentralized prediction market that harnesses the economic incentives of crypto to forecast real-world events. The platform’s future trajectory will hinge on how effectively it balances innovation, compliance, and the demand for open, global betting on anything from elections to cultural phenomena.

References

  1. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket%20is%20an%20American%20cryptocurrency,outcomes%20occurring%20in%20the%20future
  2. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket%20is%20an%20American%20cryptocurrency,outcomes%20occurring%20in%20the%20future
  3. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=a%20platform%20where%20investors%20can,outcomes%20occurring%20in%20the%20future
  4. ↑ Shayne Coplan - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shayne_Coplan#:~:text=professor%20Robin%20Hanson%20%E2%80%99s%20work,media%20coverage%20of%20the%20election
  5. ↑ Polymarket's trading volume does not match on-chain data, how severe is the "wash trading" inflation? - ChainCatcher: https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2149655#:~:text=Since%20a%20key%20court%20ruling,you%20in%20the%20real%20world
  6. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=A%20few%20days%20after%20the,16
  7. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket,the%20pundits%20and%20polls%E2%80%94internet%20prediction
  8. ↑ Shayne Coplan - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shayne_Coplan#:~:text=later%20value.,media%20coverage%20of%20the%20election
  9. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=The%20order%20finds%20that%2C%20beginning,The%20order
  10. ↑ enfblockratizeorder1322: https://www.cftc.gov/media/6891/enfblockratizeorder010322/download#:~:text=contracts%20related%20to%20some%20event,%E2%80%9CWill
  11. ↑ Polymarket's trading volume does not match on-chain data, how severe is the "wash trading" inflation? - ChainCatcher: https://www.chaincatcher.com/en/article/2149655#:~:text=prediction%20platform%20to%20date%20,you%20in%20the%20real%20world
  12. ↑ enfblockratizeorder1322: https://www.cftc.gov/media/6891/enfblockratizeorder010322/download#:~:text=contracts%20related%20to%20some%20event,%E2%80%9CWill
  13. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=to%20%E2%80%9Cbet%20on%20your%20beliefs%E2%80%9D,based%20binary%20option%20markets
  14. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=In%20May%202022%2C%20Polymarket%20appointed,3
  15. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=In%20May%202022%2C%20Polymarket%20appointed,68%2C%20a%20venture%20capital%20firm
  16. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=resolution%2C%20such%20as%3A%20%E2%80%9CWill%20%24ETH,markets%20offered%20on%20its%20website
  17. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=In%20June%202023%2C%20Mother%20Jones,10
  18. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket%20has%20grown%20from%20%2473mm,9
  19. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=substantial%20growth%20in%20website%20traffic,9
  20. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=binary%20outcomes%20on%20the%20Polygon,Polymarket%20primarily%20leverages%20UMA%E2%80%99s%20Optimistic
  21. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=,trades%20using%20Automated%20Market%20Makers
  22. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=stablecoin,chain%20on%20the%20Polygon%20network
  23. ↑ Using the Order Book - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/trading/using-the-orderbook#:~:text=Deposits%20%26%20Withdrawals
  24. ↑ What Is Polymarket Decentralized Prediction Market, and How Does It Work? | KuCoin Learn: https://www.kucoin.com/learn/crypto/what-is-polymarket-and-how-does-it-work#:~:text=Ethereum%20and%20Polygon%2C%20offers%20decentralized,cryptocurrency%20price%20outcomes%20and%20traditional
  25. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=,UMA%20token%20holders%20vote%20to
  26. ↑ Using the Order Book - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/trading/using-the-orderbook#:~:text=In%20a%20market%20order%2C%20your,at%20the%20current%20market%20price
  27. ↑ Using the Order Book - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/trading/using-the-orderbook#:~:text=In%20this%20market%2C%20%E2%80%9CPresidential%20Election,book%20for%20Trump%20Yes%20shares
  28. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=involves%20an%20operator%20providing%20off,Polymarket%20primarily%20leverages%20UMA%E2%80%99s%20Optimistic
  29. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=binary%20outcomes%20on%20the%20Polygon,Polymarket%20primarily%20leverages%20UMA%E2%80%99s%20Optimistic
  30. ↑ Liquidity | Polymarket: https://legacy-docs.polymarket.com/faq/liquidity#:~:text=The%20current%20market%20structure%20uses,to%20the%20pool%20of%20assets
  31. ↑ Liquidity | Polymarket: https://legacy-docs.polymarket.com/faq/liquidity#:~:text=What%20is%20the%20incentive%20for,me%20to%20add%20liquidity
  32. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=Currently%20Polymarket%20takes%20a%20small,49
  33. ↑ Liquidity | Polymarket: https://legacy-docs.polymarket.com/faq/liquidity#:~:text=Why%20is%20liquidity%20necessary%20for,the%20markets
  34. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=home%20any%20of%20this%20fee,49
  35. ↑ pm-AMM: A Uniform AMM for Prediction Markets - Paradigm: https://www.paradigm.xyz/2024/11/pm-amm#:~:text=These%20AMMs%20may%20be%20useful,bonds%2C%20options%2C%20or%20other%20derivatives
  36. ↑ pm-AMM: A Uniform AMM for Prediction Markets - Paradigm: https://www.paradigm.xyz/2024/11/pm-amm#:~:text=Figure%201%20shows%20the%20invariant,provides%20less%20liquidity%20over%20time
  37. ↑ How are markets created? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-created#:~:text=Markets%20are%20created%20by%20the,from%20users%20and%20the%20community
  38. ↑ How are markets created? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-created#:~:text=While%20users%20cannot%20directly%20create,Polymarket%20considers%20the%20following%20factors
  39. ↑ How are markets created? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-created#:~:text=,demand%20for%20trading%20that%20market
  40. ↑ How are markets created? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-created#:~:text=considers%20the%20following%20factors%3A
  41. ↑ How are markets created? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-created#:~:text=Can%20the%20market%20be%20resolved,clearly
  42. ↑ How are preduction markets resolved? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-resolved#:~:text=Market%20Resolution%20Process
  43. ↑ How are preduction markets resolved? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-resolved#:~:text=Markets%20are%20resolved%20by%20the,contract%20based%20optimistic%20oracle
  44. ↑ How are preduction markets resolved? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-resolved#:~:text=,if%20the%20proposal%20is%20unsuccessful
  45. ↑ How are preduction markets resolved? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-resolved#:~:text=To%20dispute%20a%20proposed%20resolution
  46. ↑ How are preduction markets resolved? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-resolved#:~:text=be%20found%20under%20market%27s%20the,order%20book
  47. ↑ How are preduction markets resolved? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-resolved#:~:text=putting%20up%20a%20bond%20in,if%20the%20proposal%20is%20unsuccessful
  48. ↑ How are preduction markets resolved? - Polymarket Learn: https://learn.polymarket.com/docs/guides/markets/how-are-markets-resolved#:~:text=Connect%20your%20wallet%20and%20submit,the%20UMA%20Oracle%E2%80%99s%20verification%20queue
  49. ↑ Polymarket Reportedly Seeks $50M in Funding, Mulls Token as Election Bets Surge: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/23/polymarket-reportedly-seeks-50m-in-funding-mulls-token-as-election-bets-surge#:~:text=The%20article%20said%20Polymarket%20would,world%20events
  50. ↑ Polymarket Reportedly Seeks $50M in Funding, Mulls Token as Election Bets Surge: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/23/polymarket-reportedly-seeks-50m-in-funding-mulls-token-as-election-bets-surge#:~:text=,startup%20says%20in%20its%20documentation
  51. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=%28AMMs%29.%20,correct%20wording%20of%20event%20contracts
  52. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket
  53. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket%20incorporates%20smart%20contracts%20and,arbitrary%2C%20or%20potentially%20biased%20interference
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  55. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=Currently%20Polymarket%20takes%20a%20small,49
  56. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=Currently%20Polymarket%20takes%20a%20small,49
  57. ↑ Fortune Claims Polymarket Is 'Rife' With Wash Trading: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/10/30/fortune-claims-polymarket-is-rife-with-wash-trading#:~:text=firms
  58. ↑ Fortune Claims Polymarket Is 'Rife' With Wash Trading: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/10/30/fortune-claims-polymarket-is-rife-with-wash-trading#:~:text=prohibit%20market%20manipulation.
  59. ↑ Polymarket Reportedly Seeks $50M in Funding, Mulls Token as Election Bets Surge: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/23/polymarket-reportedly-seeks-50m-in-funding-mulls-token-as-election-bets-surge#:~:text=The%20article%20said%20Polymarket%20would,world%20events
  60. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=home%20any%20of%20this%20fee,49
  61. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=resolution%2C%20such%20as%3A%20%E2%80%9CWill%20%24ETH,markets%20offered%20on%20its%20website
  62. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=to%20%E2%80%9Cbet%20on%20your%20beliefs%E2%80%9D,based%20binary%20option%20markets
  63. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=to%20%E2%80%9Cbet%20on%20your%20beliefs%E2%80%9D,defines%2C%20hosts%2C%20and%20resolves%20the
  64. ↑ enfblockratizeorder1322: https://www.cftc.gov/media/6891/enfblockratizeorder010322/download#:~:text=include%20predicting%20the%20future%20price,options%2C%20constitute%20swaps%20under%20the
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  66. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket%20is%20one%20of%20the,9
  67. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=In%202024%2C%20the%20outcome%20of,13
  68. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=driven%20by%20highly%20unpredictable%20scenarios%2C,This%20particular
  69. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=investigation%20of%20potential%20market%20manipulation,21
  70. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket%20has%20grown%20from%20%2473mm,9
  71. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=On%20October%207%2C%202024%2C%20Polymarket,had%20spoken%20at%20a%20Trump
  72. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=A%20few%20days%20after%20the,16
  73. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=A%20few%20days%20after%20the,16
  74. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket,the%20pundits%20and%20polls%E2%80%94internet%20prediction
  75. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket,the%20pundits%20and%20polls%E2%80%94internet%20prediction
  76. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=12.%20,Fortune
  77. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=withdraw%20from%20the%202024%20U,16
  78. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=15.%20,Forbes
  79. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=On%20October%207%2C%202024%2C%20Polymarket,had%20spoken%20at%20a%20Trump
  80. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=throughout%20September,Silver%2C%20a%20Polymarket
  81. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=The%20divergence%20continued%20into%20mid,were%20controlled%20by%20one%20French
  82. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=had%20been%20placed%20on%20Trump%2C,18
  83. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Nate%20Silver%20%20said%20his,larger%20swing%20than%20is
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  85. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=investigation%20of%20potential%20market%20manipulation,21
  86. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=17.%20,Retrieved%20October%2018%2C%202024
  87. ↑ enfblockratizeorder1322: https://www.cftc.gov/media/6891/enfblockratizeorder010322/download#:~:text=include%20predicting%20the%20future%20price,options%2C%20constitute%20swaps%20under%20the
  88. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=The%20order%20finds%20that%2C%20beginning,than%20900%20separate%20event%20markets
  89. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=Washington%2C%20D,SEF
  90. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=The%20order%20finds%20that%2C%20beginning,The%20order
  91. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=The%20order%20requires%20that%20Polymarket,and%20CFTC%20regulations%2C%20as%20charged
  92. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=resolution%2C%20such%20as%3A%20%E2%80%9CWill%20%24ETH,markets%20offered%20on%20its%20website
  93. ↑ enfblockratizeorder1322: https://www.cftc.gov/media/6891/enfblockratizeorder010322/download#:~:text=In%20accepting%20Respondent%E2%80%99s%20Offer%2C%20the,Delaware%20corporation%20with%20its%20headquarters
  94. ↑ CFTC Orders Event-Based Binary Options Markets Operator to Pay $1.4 Million Penalty | CFTC: https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22#:~:text=%E2%80%9CAll%20derivatives%20markets%20must%20operate,%E2%80%9D
  95. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket%20has%20blocked%20access%20to,trading%20platform.%5B%202
  96. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=In%20May%202022%2C%20Polymarket%20appointed,3
  97. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=and%20Democratic%20%20candidate%20,13
  98. ↑ Shayne Coplan - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shayne_Coplan#:~:text=Shayne%20Coplan%3F%20The%2026,%E2%80%93%20via
  99. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=On%20November%2013%2C%202024%2C%20the,25
  100. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=On%20November%2013%2C%202024%2C%20the,25
  101. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Retrieved%20November%2013%2C%202024,Retrieved%20November%2015%2C%202024
  102. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=website.,25
  103. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=On%20December%202%2C%202024%2C%20the,27
  104. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=26.%20%5E%20,Retrieved%20January%2016%2C%202025
  105. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=Polymarket%20has%20blocked%20access%20to,trading%20platform.%5B%202
  106. ↑ Fortune Claims Polymarket Is 'Rife' With Wash Trading: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/10/30/fortune-claims-polymarket-is-rife-with-wash-trading#:~:text=A%20Polymarket%20spokesperson%20told%20CoinDesk%3A,in%20and%20of%20itself%20problematic
  107. ↑ What Is Polymarket Decentralized Prediction Market, and How Does It Work? | KuCoin Learn: https://www.kucoin.com/learn/crypto/what-is-polymarket-and-how-does-it-work#:~:text=Polymarket%20and%20Kalshi%20are%20key,cryptocurrency%20price%20outcomes%20and%20traditional
  108. ↑ What Is Polymarket Decentralized Prediction Market, and How Does It Work? | KuCoin Learn: https://www.kucoin.com/learn/crypto/what-is-polymarket-and-how-does-it-work#:~:text=Ethereum%20and%20Polygon%2C%20offers%20decentralized,cryptocurrency%20price%20outcomes%20and%20traditional
  109. ↑ Polymarket: Crypto’s Election-Year Breakout App: https://www.grayscale.com/research/reports/polymarket#:~:text=Despite%20their%20efficacy%2C%20these%20prediction,8
  110. ↑ 87.3% of crypto bettors on Polymarket win nothing!: https://www.cointribune.com/en/87-3-of-crypto-bettors-on-polymarket-win-nothing/#:~:text=the%20171%2C113%20crypto%20wallets%20registered,risky%20bet%20for%20most%20users
  111. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=The%20divergence%20continued%20into%20mid,were%20controlled%20by%20one%20French
  112. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=investigation%20of%20potential%20market%20manipulation,21
  113. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=the%20presidential%20race%20between%20the,13
  114. ↑ 87.3% of crypto bettors on Polymarket win nothing!: https://www.cointribune.com/en/87-3-of-crypto-bettors-on-polymarket-win-nothing/#:~:text=the%20171%2C113%20crypto%20wallets%20registered,risky%20bet%20for%20most%20users
  115. ↑ Fortune Claims Polymarket Is 'Rife' With Wash Trading: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/10/30/fortune-claims-polymarket-is-rife-with-wash-trading#:~:text=Prediction%20market%20Polymarket%20is%20,analyses%20by%20blockchain%20sleuthing%20firms
  116. ↑ Fortune Claims Polymarket Is 'Rife' With Wash Trading: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/10/30/fortune-claims-polymarket-is-rife-with-wash-trading#:~:text=The%20Fortune%20article%2C%20which%20debuted,the%20magazine%20said
  117. ↑ Fortune Claims Polymarket Is 'Rife' With Wash Trading: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/10/30/fortune-claims-polymarket-is-rife-with-wash-trading#:~:text=A%20Polymarket%20spokesperson%20told%20CoinDesk%3A,in%20and%20of%20itself%20problematic
  118. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=had%20been%20placed%20on%20Trump%2C,18
  119. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=investigation%20of%20potential%20market%20manipulation,21
  120. ↑ Polymarket - Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymarket#:~:text=In%20June%202023%2C%20Mother%20Jones,10
  121. ↑ Polymarket Reportedly Seeks $50M in Funding, Mulls Token as Election Bets Surge: https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/09/23/polymarket-reportedly-seeks-50m-in-funding-mulls-token-as-election-bets-surge#:~:text=article%20Monday%20in%20tech%20news,site%20The%20Information
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